February, 2009

Market Close

Submitted by lisa on Fri, 02/27/2009 - 16:11
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What a week! I'm glad it's over. The 741 level on the S&P was valiantly defended, but in the end it closed at 735, its lowest level since 1997. It's going to be a busy weekend at the White House, as everyone, including GM, is trying to get a "give me a hand-out" meeting with the administration.

S&P Now

Submitted by lisa on Fri, 02/27/2009 - 11:40
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5 minute S&P futures from low of 729.50 to the present time. Price is hovering around that 741 November low mark.

S&PS&P

The Budget and GDP/Premarket S&P

Submitted by lisa on Fri, 02/27/2009 - 08:34
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Read the proposed budget here

Citigroup has, in effect, been nationalized. The new phrase for that is "public/private." The US government has increased it's stake in the company to around 40%.

Preliminary Q4 annualized GDP, Price Index, Personal Consumption and Core PCE (personal consumption expenditures):

Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP ANUALIZED: -6.2% V -5.4%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: -4.3% V -3.7%E
Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP PRICE INDEX: 0.5% V -0.1%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 0.8% V 0.6%E

S&P, Dow and IBM

Submitted by lisa on Thu, 02/26/2009 - 23:17
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The first: S&P futures hourly chart covers about a one month time span.
The second: Dow daily chart showing the 50dma (blue) and the 200dma (purple). dma=daily moving average Price is well below both averages, but price could continue to crawl at these levels while the moving averages come down to meet it. Traders tend to forget that.
Third and fourth charts: S&P futures 5 minute chart. This shows the sell-off, with volume, for yesterday and today. The biggest volume today was to the downside.

Where To Invest or Trade

Submitted by lisa on Thu, 02/26/2009 - 22:43
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Sorry this is so late. I was on a video conference with part of my team, and we were quite animated and long-winded. I'm going to post some charts after this post.

Hear That Sound?

Submitted by lisa on Thu, 02/26/2009 - 11:28
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OMB Director Orszag: Proposes capital gains tax increase to 20%, restoring taxes from Clinton era; seeking $1T tax increase on high earners and companies
- Continues favorable dividend on corporate dividend
-Tax burden for hedge funds to private equity would just about triple.

An increased tax on business is always passed on to the consumer.

Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders

Submitted by lisa on Thu, 02/26/2009 - 09:26
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I don't know how much rallying the market can do after seeing these numbers, but maybe there's one more push up from thinking like "it can't get any worse, so this is the bottom."


*INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 667K V 625KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 5.112M V 5.025ME
- Prior jobless claims revised from 627K to 631K
- Prior Continuing Claims revised from 4.987M to 4.998M

***Highest initial claims since Oct 1982
***Highest Continuing claims on record


JAN DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -5.2% V -2.5%E; DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION: -2.5% V -2.2%E

Pray There Really Is Global Warming

Submitted by lisa on Wed, 02/25/2009 - 23:28
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Or, at least hope there is enough idiocy out there to make this work:

Administration Official: Obama budget includes hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue from Co2 trading
- The trading revenues are spread out over many years starting in 2012.

White House Blog

Submitted by lisa on Wed, 02/25/2009 - 21:51
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Seriously, the White House has a blog. A third grader could do a better job with the content. One aspect I particularly enjoyed was the Recovery Act in pictures. Are they serious? And don't forget to visit www.recovery.gov. Just don't eat before reading it. This is a sample from the FAQ:

Q: Who runs Recovery.gov?

Tea Party Nation

Submitted by lisa on Wed, 02/25/2009 - 17:08
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Tea Party here and there and everywhere. It's a start, but only a start. This is going to be a long battle, so I hope people are prepared for that, and pace themselves. I think it's important that these protests be heavily attended, and that they are happening quickly. The erosion of American values has accelerated.

Here are a couple of interesting links, and a couple of pictures from the Overland Park, Kansas protest:

http://www.pjtv.com/?cmd=page&page-id=68
http://www.katablog.com/