March, 2009

Quick Note

Submitted by lisa on Mon, 03/16/2009 - 08:07
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I can't encourage anyone to participate in this market right now. I will trade, because that is my full time job. But, as I've said, this market is only for scalping and I don't have the time to teach anyone how to do that. Stay in cash, this market will come back some day, and you'll want to have the money to participate. But that time is not now, in my opinion.

The Weekend

Submitted by lisa on Fri, 03/13/2009 - 20:21
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I'll have the post up over the weekend. Much to do. Thanks!

Pre-Market S&P

Submitted by lisa on Fri, 03/13/2009 - 08:01
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Good morning. First, the January trade balance data:

JAN TRADE BALANCE: -$36.0B V -$38.0BE (Sixth consecutive decline in both imports and exports, a record)

Components
- Imports: $160.9 v $173.7B prior
- Exports: $124.9 v $133.8B prior
- China: -$20.6B v -$19.8B prior (lowest since Feb 2006)
- Japan: -$4.3B v -$5.27B prior (lowest since Jan 1998)
- Canada: -$2.5B v -$2.8B prior
- OPEC: -$3.93B v -$4.6B prior (lowest since Jan 2002)
- Mexico: -$2.7B v -$4.08B prior (lowest since Jan 2002)
- Euro Area: -$4.0B v -$6.9B prior

Market Rally Continues

Submitted by lisa on Thu, 03/12/2009 - 18:15
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Here are some different time frames on the S&P futures, starting with the 5 minute. The dashed yellow line is around 755. Next is the 60 minute and then the daily. Note the volume levels. Volatility is high, in spite of the worthless VIX (volatility index) reading of 41. Moves such as these are unsustainable and a sign of an unhealthy market.

Jobless Claims and Crime

Submitted by lisa on Thu, 03/12/2009 - 09:53
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While the world is distracted by analysis of Bernie Madoff's guilty plea, the other crimes being concocted by the US Treasury are ignored. Geithner's new public-private investment fund is a shell game. The only real money left, short of printing more, is in the retirement savings of American citizens. This new "investment fund" is designed to take it away.

Close and Comments

Submitted by lisa on Wed, 03/11/2009 - 15:45
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The market indices ended pretty much flat on the day. Obama formally signs $410M omnibus bill to fund Govt operations through September. According to CNBC The Fed is making an "extraordinary" effort to be transparent by releasing minutes from the emergency meetings from July through December 2008, since the minutes weren't supposed to be released for five years. Just more of the PR stunts being performed, along with talking about mark-to-market and the uptick rule. It's all geared toward building confidence.

S&P Futures Now

Submitted by lisa on Wed, 03/11/2009 - 11:31
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The larger yellow triangle is important intraday. The rest of the lines are support/resistance short term.

S&PS&P

PreMarket Update

Submitted by lisa on Wed, 03/11/2009 - 08:32
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The market continues in rally mode. People trying to find silver linings and explain the rally (while Rome burns). I find the new TALF rules a bit curious, as the Fed decides that small business loans guaranteed by the SBA will not be eligible for collateral.

NY Fed revises TALF compliance and eligibility rules; removes small business loans guaranteed by the SBA as eligible collateral

Market Commentary

Submitted by lisa on Tue, 03/10/2009 - 20:03
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My fellow blogger, GYSC, said that I seemed very pessimistic today, in spite of a great rally. I know he was kidding, but he was right. Let me shed some light on my attitude about the markets. I will trade what the market offers, and I will trade the trend, when there is one. Although the last two years have shown a downtrend, it's been highly volatile. Since last July, the market has traded sideways for a few months, followed by a nasty downturn, then sideways, then downturn. The Dow chart below shows the pattern. It has been an amazing couple of years, and not in a good way.

PreMarket Charts

Submitted by lisa on Tue, 03/10/2009 - 07:49
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S&P 60 minute chart shows support/resistance. If the S&P reaches the 720 area, I will take a small position in SDS (ETF that shorts the S&P).
The S&P futures 5 min. chart shows the climb overnight, and short term support/resistance forming a triangle.